新兴市场获青睐！美国投资者踏空？

Core Insights - Emerging market equity funds have outperformed global markets this year, driven by low valuations, years of underweight positioning, and easing economic pressures [1] - Latin America and emerging Europe equity funds have seen a year-to-date increase of 24%, while broad emerging market equity funds rose by 9.3% [1] - Single-country equity funds in Morocco, Colombia, Greece, Brazil, and Portugal have all exceeded 30% returns, contrasting with a mere 0.17% increase in U.S. equity funds and a 6.8% rise in global equity funds [1] Fund Flows and Valuation - In the first five months of this year, emerging market equity funds experienced a net inflow of $10.6 billion, a 43% year-on-year increase [1] - U.S. investors currently allocate only 3%-5% to emerging markets, significantly lower than the MSCI global index weight of 10.5% and the actual global market capitalization of approximately 25% for emerging markets [1] Fundamental Improvements - Analysts highlight improvements in fundamentals, with Latin American countries less affected by U.S. trade deficits due to tariffs, and Asian economies shifting towards domestic demand [2] - JPMorgan upgraded its rating on emerging market equities from "neutral" to "overweight," anticipating that all developing economy central banks, except Brazil, will enter a monetary easing cycle, boosting economic vitality and market attractiveness [2] Sector-Specific Insights - The rebound in tech stocks has revitalized the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong markets, with foreign investors returning to favor AI and low-cost tech companies [2] - The consumer theme in China is currently seen as highly attractive, with good prospects, while Indian markets may be overbought, though opportunities remain in power companies and non-bank financial institutions [2] Valuation Comparisons - As of the end of last month, the forward P/E ratio for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was 11.96, slightly below the ten-year average of 12.1; in contrast, the MSCI U.S. and global indices stood at 20.5 and 18.1, respectively, significantly above their historical averages [2]