铝：宏观与基本面共振，价格面临下跌压力

Macro Perspective - Recent aluminum prices have rebounded, recovering losses from tariff impacts, with prices stabilizing around previous levels for about a week [2] - The U.S. has temporarily suspended the implementation of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, and positive trade agreement developments between the U.S. and the UK have boosted market sentiment [3] - The expiration of the 90-day suspension on July 8 may lead to renewed focus on high tariff risks, as the U.S. maintains a 10% tariff baseline [3] - The Federal Reserve remains cautious about interest rate cuts, with expectations for potential cuts in Q3 or later, which may indicate economic weakness rather than a positive market signal [3] Demand Dynamics - Demand for aluminum has shown surprising strength, with average apparent consumption in March and April increasing by 6.6% and 6.1% year-on-year, respectively, exceeding initial forecasts [4] - Factors driving current demand include policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods and pre-tariff export surges, but these may lead to a depletion of future demand [4] - The import of scrap aluminum has increased to 700,000 tons in the first four months of the year, compared to 650,000 tons in the same period last year, indicating strong domestic supply [4] Supply and Import Levels - Domestic aluminum production reached 14.36 million tons in the first four months, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [6] - The operating capacity of the aluminum industry is at 96.1%, with daily production expected to stabilize around 120,000 tons [6][7] - Aluminum imports in the first four months were 830,000 tons, slightly lower than last year's 940,000 tons, but still among the highest levels in recent years [6] Inventory Trends - Projections indicate that aluminum inventories may begin to increase slightly in the coming months, with demand growth expected to slow to around 2% [9] - If imports exceed expectations while demand declines more significantly, inventory accumulation could be more pronounced [9] Global Production Recovery - Global aluminum production in Q1 2025 was 18.11 million tons, with China contributing significantly to this growth [11] - Several overseas aluminum plants, including those in Germany and New Zealand, are in the process of resuming full production, which may impact global supply dynamics [11] Conclusion - The macroeconomic environment remains challenging with high tariffs potentially hindering global growth, while domestic supply remains robust but demand is showing signs of marginal decline [12] - The interplay between macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics suggests that aluminum prices may face downward pressure in the near future [12]