日本央行减持、寿险机构谨慎，谁来接盘日本天量国债？

Core Viewpoint - Japan's long-term government bonds are facing significant selling pressure, leading to a liquidity crisis in the bond market, as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) plans to reduce its bond purchases while domestic financial institutions are hesitant to buy due to rising risks and regulatory pressures [1][4][5]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - Japan's 30-year and 40-year government bond yields have reached high levels, with the 30-year yield at 3.047% and the 40-year yield at 3.528% as of May 23 [1]. - The auction for Japan's 20-year bonds on May 20 was the worst since 2012, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.5, significantly lower than the previous month's 2.96 [1][3]. - The BOJ currently holds approximately 52% of Japan's long-term government bonds, while other institutions like life insurance companies hold about 13.4% [3]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Bond Sales - Rising inflation and uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies are complicating the BOJ's ability to raise interest rates, leading to a reliance on supplementary policy measures [2][8]. - The depreciation of the dollar and appreciation of the yen have reduced overseas investment returns, further impacting the demand for Japanese bonds [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The BOJ plans to gradually reduce its bond purchases, aiming to decrease the quarterly purchase amount by 400 billion yen until it reaches 2.9 trillion yen by the first quarter of 2026 [5]. - Experts warn that if the BOJ does not intervene and bond yields continue to rise, Japan could enter a negative feedback loop of selling and rising rates, leading to a liquidity crisis in the bond market [8][10]. - The high debt-to-GDP ratio in Japan, exceeding 250%, raises concerns about the sustainability of its fiscal policies and the potential for a debt crisis if yields continue to rise [7][8].