UBS Group AG Outlook Upgrades to Positive by Fitch, Affirms IDR at 'A'

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings has upgraded the outlook of UBS Group AG to Positive from Stable, affirming its long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'A' and UBS AG's and UBS Switzerland AG's at 'A+' due to the successful integration of Credit Suisse and expected improvements in profitability [1][2]. Group 1: Integration and Execution Risk - Execution risk for UBS is expected to decline as the integration of Credit Suisse progresses, with minimal residual risk anticipated after client migration and system decommissioning, expected to be completed by the end of 2026 [2]. - UBS has effectively managed integration risks over the past two years, preventing operational disruptions and maintaining a prudent risk culture, with the wind-down of non-core assets ahead of schedule [3]. Group 2: Business Model and Profitability - The integration of Credit Suisse is projected to enhance UBS's business model by increasing scale and diversifying revenue, supporting its strategy and leadership in global wealth management [4]. - Fitch anticipates UBS's profitability will recover to pre-acquisition levels by 2026, with the operating profit/risk-weighted assets ratio expected to rise from 0.2% in 2023 to 2.5% in 2026 and 3% in 2027 [5]. Group 3: Financial Strength and Stability - UBS's capital position remains robust, with a CET1 ratio expected to exceed the medium-term guidance of 14% until integration completion, and it maintains one of the highest Basel leverage ratios among European banks [6]. - The liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) was reported at 181% in Q1 2025, indicating a stable funding profile [6]. Group 4: Risk Management - UBS is expected to continue effectively managing integration risks, ensuring stable operations and minimizing disruptions, with a loans-to-deposits ratio improving to 83% in Q1 2025 [7]. - The bank's low impaired loans ratio of close to 1% reflects its prudent risk culture, significantly better than its European peers [7]. Group 5: Overall Outlook - The Positive Outlook from Fitch indicates expectations for UBS to restore profitability to pre-acquisition levels while maintaining strong asset quality, solid capital, and resilient funding [8]. - UBS's successful integration of Credit Suisse is anticipated to durably strengthen its business model, reinforcing its leading position in global wealth management [8].