降息问题揭示美国内部深层次博弈

Group 1 - The core issue of whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates is a complex interplay between the interests of the financial sector and the real economy in the U.S. [1] - The pressure from the Trump administration on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to lower interest rates highlights the ongoing conflict between different interest groups within the U.S. [1] - The recent Chicago Economic Club speech by Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve would not take emergency measures in response to market fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of internal economic dynamics [1] Group 2 - Following high-level U.S.-China trade talks, the expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut has cooled, with a majority of Americans anticipating price increases due to tariffs [2] - The inflation rate in the U.S. remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, making an immediate rate cut unlikely, leading Citibank to push back its rate cut forecast from June to July [2] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast, now expecting the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates in December, indicating a shift from a protective stance to a normalization approach due to stable economic growth [2] Group 3 - The U.S. government's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates is driven by the desire to devalue the dollar and improve manufacturing competitiveness [3] - The significant U.S. national debt, which has surpassed $36 trillion, adds urgency to the government's push for lower interest rates to facilitate the refinancing of high-interest debt [3] - The ongoing conflict between the Federal Reserve's short-term interests and the government's strategic goals suggests that the debate over interest rate cuts will continue, making predictions about future rate changes premature [3]