百度集团-SW(9888.HK)：搜索龙头迈步转型AI云厂商

Core Insights - Baidu Group's total revenue for Q1 2025 reached 32.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, exceeding expectations primarily due to strong growth in AI cloud revenue [1] - Non-GAAP net profit was 6.5 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 19.9%, which is a decline of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to pressure on the relatively high-margin advertising business [1] - The proportion of AI cloud revenue in Baidu's core income increased by 6.5 percentage points year-on-year to 26.1%, while advertising revenue's share decreased by 8.7 percentage points [1] Revenue Breakdown - Baidu's core revenue grew by 7.0% year-on-year to 25.5 billion yuan, driven by better-than-expected AI cloud revenue [1] - Advertising revenue fell by 6.1% year-on-year to 16 billion yuan, impacted by moderate demand from advertisers and the effects of AI search transformation [1] - Non-advertising revenue increased by 39.6% year-on-year to 9.5 billion yuan, with AI cloud revenue growing by 42% year-on-year to 6.7 billion yuan [1] AI Transformation and User Engagement - In April, 35% of Baidu's search results included AI-generated content, up from 22% in January, indicating a proactive approach to AI transformation in search [2] - Baidu's app reached 724 million monthly active users in March, a year-on-year increase of 7%, suggesting improved user experience [2] - The "Agent" feature is becoming a significant part of Baidu's advertising business, with related revenue growing 30 times year-on-year in Q1 2025, accounting for 9% of core advertising revenue [2] Global Expansion and Order Growth - Baidu's "Luobo Kuaipao" service has expanded internationally, now operating in 15 cities with over 1,000 deployed vehicles, and saw a 75% year-on-year increase in order volume to 1.4 million in Q1 2025 [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 down by 6.8%, 5.7%, and 3.6% respectively, primarily due to downward revisions in high-margin advertising revenue expectations [3] - The target price based on SOTP valuation is set at $102.2, down from a previous$110.9, and HK$99.5, down from HK$108.3 [3]