Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-23 21:19Core Viewpoint - Zhangyu, a century-old wine company, is facing significant challenges with a sharp decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, raising concerns about its performance in offline retail channels [1][5][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - In 2024, Zhangyu reported a revenue of 3.277 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.26% year-on-year, and a net profit of 305 million yuan, down 42.68%, marking a new low in recent years [5]. - The company's core products, wine and brandy, experienced substantial declines, with wine sales down 12.22% and revenue down 22.32%, while brandy sales plummeted 31.56% with revenue dropping 35.8% [5]. - The company's sales expense ratio reached a near ten-year high of 30.91%, indicating high costs without corresponding revenue growth [6]. Group 2: Inventory and Operational Efficiency - Zhangyu's inventory reached 2.904 billion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year, with inventory turnover days soaring to 732.8 days, the highest in nearly a decade [6]. - The company is struggling to meet its ambitious revenue targets, with a goal of at least 3.4 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting limited confidence in short-term market recovery [6]. Group 3: Market Position and Competition - The Chinese wine industry is facing a downturn, with market size shrinking from 53.4 billion yuan in 2019 to 15.9 billion yuan in 2024, highlighting the challenges Zhangyu faces [7]. - The termination of anti-dumping measures on Australian wine has led to a 13.6% increase in import volume and a 37.2% increase in import value, intensifying competition for domestic brands [7]. Group 4: Management and Strategy - Zhangyu's management has implemented a stock incentive plan, which has drawn criticism from investors due to the disconnect between management rewards and the company's poor performance [7]. - To attract younger consumers, Zhangyu launched a low-alcohol sparkling wine "Xiao Tao," which has seen limited success in a highly competitive market [9].