海能投顾深度解析比特币突破历史新高背后的市场逻辑

Macro Economic Environment - The global major economies are maintaining loose monetary policies, providing ample liquidity support for the cryptocurrency market [1] - The Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy, combined with inflation pressures in some countries, has led more investors to view Bitcoin as a hedge against currency devaluation [1] - Institutional investors are significantly increasing their allocation to digital assets amid heightened volatility in traditional financial markets [1] Market Supply and Demand - The scarcity of Bitcoin is becoming increasingly evident, with over 90% of Bitcoin already mined, and remaining output expected to decrease gradually [1] - The declining reserves of Bitcoin on major exchanges indicate a strong market sentiment of holding rather than selling [1] - Several publicly listed companies have begun to include Bitcoin on their balance sheets, reshaping the market supply and demand dynamics [1] Technological Advancements - Continuous upgrades to the Bitcoin network are providing stronger support for its value storage function [1] - The rapid development of the Lightning Network has improved payment efficiency, while the Taproot upgrade has enhanced privacy and smart contract capabilities [1] - These technological advancements not only solidify Bitcoin's core position in the cryptocurrency ecosystem but also create conditions for the expansion of its application scenarios [1] Investment Cycle Perspective - The Bitcoin market exhibits clear cyclical characteristics, with historical data showing significant price increases typically occurring 18-24 months after each halving event [2] - The current market is within this cyclical time window, with institutional investors entering the market and altering the previously retail-dominated market structure [2] - A multi-dimensional analytical framework is essential for understanding Bitcoin market dynamics, requiring attention to macroeconomic changes, blockchain technology evolution, and market participant behavior [2]