特朗普“关税威胁”越多，美元和美债砸的越狠

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank warns that the United States' dual deficit status makes it highly reliant on foreign capital inflows, and Trump's confrontational policies are undermining international investor confidence, posing a direct threat to the stability of the dollar and the U.S. Treasury market [1][3]. Group 1: Economic and Market Implications - The core challenge facing the dollar and U.S. Treasury market is the need for continuous foreign capital inflows to sustain the dual deficit status [1]. - A cooling interest from foreign investors in U.S. Treasuries and the dollar could lead to increased exchange rate volatility and significant fluctuations in bond yields [1]. - The recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating, weak performance in the 20-year Treasury auction, and growing concerns over rising U.S. fiscal spending have all impacted the Treasury market [1]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Policy Impact - Trump's tariff policies and aggressive diplomatic stance are quietly eroding foreign investors' trust in the U.S. market [3]. - Saravelos highlights that Trump's unpredictable style complicates foreign investors' ability to forecast U.S. policies, diminishing their willingness to hold dollars and Treasuries [3]. - If confrontational diplomatic and economic policies persist, the outlook for the dollar and Treasuries will become increasingly pessimistic, necessitating a more moderate approach from the U.S. government to maintain market stability [3].