美日长债拍卖遭遇“滑铁卢”，华尔街预警美主权评级还将连降六级，美元资产何去何从？

Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - Long-term bond yields in major developed countries have risen significantly, with the US 30-year Treasury yield exceeding 5.15%, marking the highest level since 2007 [1][2] - The recent bond auctions in the US and Japan faced poor demand, with the US 20-year bond auction showing a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.46, the lowest since February [2][5] - Japan's 20-year bond auction also recorded a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.5, the worst since 2012, contributing to rising yields in the Japanese bond market [5] Group 2: Dollar Asset Concerns - There is a growing concern regarding the demand for dollar assets, as indicated by a historical peak in bearish sentiment towards the dollar among currency options traders [1][8] - The ICE dollar index has fallen approximately 10% from its yearly high, reflecting a decline in confidence in the dollar [8][11] - Speculative positions show a net short position of $17.32 billion in the dollar, nearing the highest level since July 2023 [11] Group 3: US Sovereign Credit Rating Outlook - Following a downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, there are expectations that it may drop further by six levels to BBB+, just above investment grade [13][15] - The current public debt to GDP ratio is around 100%, projected to rise to 134% by 2035, raising concerns about the sustainability of US fiscal policy [13][15] - The market is increasingly worried about the US government's ability to manage spending, especially with recent budget proposals that could significantly increase the deficit [18][20] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Policy Implications - The rising bond yields are putting pressure on the Federal Reserve, with speculation about their decisions in the upcoming June meeting [20] - Analysts suggest that if the Fed signals a hawkish stance, it could exacerbate the bond sell-off and push yields higher, while a dovish signal might lead to dollar depreciation and inflation rebound [20]