美国真的想消除贸易逆差？德银：简单，美元贬值40%就够了

Group 1 - The core proposal of Deutsche Bank's economist Peter Hooper is to eliminate the US trade deficit by devaluing the dollar by 40% [1][3] - The report identifies the fluctuation of the dollar's real exchange rate as the most persistent driver of the US trade deficit, influenced by fundamental shifts in fiscal and monetary policy as well as changes in overseas private and government savings [2][3] - The report highlights that the US trade deficit has reached unprecedented levels, exacerbated by significant tariff policies implemented since Trump's administration [2][3] Group 2 - A 40% devaluation of the dollar could potentially bring the trade deficit back to a zero balance, reversing the 40% real appreciation of the dollar over the past 15 years [1][3] - The report indicates that a 20-30% devaluation of the dollar could reduce the trade deficit by approximately 3% of GDP, suggesting that a significant reversal of the dollar's appreciation could lead to a balanced trade situation [3][5] - However, a 40% devaluation of the dollar is expected to have catastrophic effects on the global economy, particularly impacting emerging markets and export-driven economies, potentially leading to a global recession [5][6] Group 3 - While current tariff policies may help reduce the trade deficit to some extent, they come with significant costs, including price increases and reduced output, which are expected to become more apparent in the coming months [8][6] - The report suggests that although there are more effective and less painful alternatives to address the trade deficit, these options may currently be politically unfeasible [6][8] - As the negative economic impacts of the current tariff-focused policies become clearer, public pressure may drive a shift in policy direction away from tariffs [6][8]