刘尚希：地方财政扩张力度不足，积极的财政政策要更有力

Core Viewpoint - Domestic demand is becoming the main driver of economic growth in China amidst external uncertainties, but there is a notable decline in fiscal revenue, necessitating more effective allocation of limited fiscal resources [2][8]. Fiscal Policy and Investment - China has implemented active fiscal policies for nearly two decades, but the effectiveness is diminishing, indicating a potential shift towards consumption-driven growth [2][5]. - Government investment and consumption should work in tandem, with a focus on local government spending, which has been growing at a slower rate compared to central government spending [2][5][7]. - Local government spending accounts for 86% of the general public budget, highlighting the need for structural reforms to enhance fiscal policy effectiveness [6][7]. Infrastructure and Investment Projects - China's infrastructure development is significant, with the country holding two-thirds of the world's total infrastructure mileage, including 45% of global highways and over 60% of 5G base stations [3]. - Some investment projects, particularly in the central and western regions, are struggling to break even due to low passenger traffic, making them less viable under current fiscal constraints [4]. Consumption and Economic Growth - Recent government reports emphasize the importance of consumption alongside investment, as both are essential for expanding domestic demand [5]. - Investment and consumption should be viewed as interrelated, with government investment potentially stimulating private investment and consumption [5][10]. Fiscal Policy Effectiveness - Current economic conditions suggest that fiscal policy may be more effective than monetary policy in stimulating growth, especially given low inflation and the limited scope for interest rate cuts [9]. - There is potential for fiscal measures to enhance investment and consumption confidence, with suggestions for establishing a blacklist system to prevent inefficient investments [10]. Challenges and Recommendations - The fiscal landscape is characterized by several inequalities, such as local government expenditures exceeding national fiscal revenues, which complicates macroeconomic management [6]. - To stimulate demand, it is recommended to implement policies that can quickly boost consumption, such as infrastructure investments and social welfare programs [10].