Nvidia(US:NVDA) 智通财经网·2025-05-25 02:24Core Viewpoint - Nvidia (NVDA.US) is set to release its earnings report next week, maintaining a strong position in the AI computing sector with rapid and stable financial growth, although it faces risks from increased competition, geopolitical uncertainties, and supply chain issues [1][16]. Financial Performance - Nvidia has shown strong past financial performance, driven primarily by its data center business, with high gross margins and a robust balance sheet. Predictions for key financial metrics in Q1 and Q2 of FY26 indicate a steady growth trend [5][16]. Market Position and Competition - Despite facing export restrictions on its H20 chips to China and intensified competition from major players like AMD, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon, Nvidia remains the leader in AI chips, benefiting from its performance and ecosystem advantages [7][16]. Recent Developments - Positive news includes partnerships in the Middle East for AI infrastructure investments, which may boost demand for Nvidia's Blackwell chips. The company is also establishing a research lab in China to develop compatible AI chips [7][16]. Valuation Metrics - Nvidia's current static P/E ratio is 44.83, lower than its historical median but higher than the semiconductor industry average of 25. The price-to-book and price-to-sales ratios are significantly above industry averages [8][16]. Stock Price Movement - Nvidia's stock price has been fluctuating between $130 and $138, with potential for a new upward trend if it breaks above the upper Bollinger Band. However, short-term indicators suggest a risk of pullback, while the long-term upward trend remains intact [9][16]. Options Market Sentiment - The implied volatility (IV) for Nvidia is currently at 56.23%, indicating moderate expectations for price fluctuations. Recent options activity shows a preference for bullish sentiment, with significant trades indicating expectations for price movements within the $110-$160 and $120-$145 ranges [12][15][16]. Capital Flow - Recent days have seen a net outflow of capital, with $1.7 billion exiting on May 21, likely due to short-term profit-taking. However, short interest remains low, suggesting limited pressure from short sellers [14][16].