美元承压，人民币企稳，欧元日元各有态势：财经分析

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the US dollar index are primarily driven by the re-evaluation of US fiscal and credit risks, following Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign rating and concerns over long-term fiscal sustainability [1] Market Analysis - The US dollar index has experienced a decline due to a downgrade in the US sovereign rating by Moody's, with all three major rating agencies rating US debt below AAA [1] - The 30-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5.1%, while short-term rates remain stable, indicating rising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [1] - The derivatives market is seeing a record high of bearish sentiment towards US assets [1] Trade and Capital Flows - In April, the foreign exchange settlement deficit slightly widened, with increased activity in corporate foreign exchange transactions [1] - The merchandise trade surplus has narrowed, with a net inflow of $64.9 billion in cross-border capital, indicating resilient exports but facing uncertainties [1] - Foreign investment in Chinese bonds is improving, as evidenced by a rebound in the custody volume of RMB bonds [1] Economic Indicators - Retail sales and industrial value-added output in April showed year-on-year growth, while the May LPR cut signals support for the RMB [1] - The preliminary May PMI in the US exceeded expectations, but the downgrade by Moody's has weakened confidence in the dollar [1] Currency Outlook - The dollar is expected to maintain a weak position against the RMB in the short term, with potential short-selling opportunities following a period of range-bound trading [1] - The euro may be in a favorable position due to the attractiveness of euro-denominated assets amid US tariff policies [1] - The Japanese yen has shown resilience despite weak fundamentals, influenced by the downgrade of the dollar rating [1] Strategic Considerations - The focus is on the potential for a widening interest rate differential between the US and China due to fiscal risks and policy uncertainties [1] - Attention is also directed towards the progress of US-EU tariff negotiations, which could impact the euro's position [1]