Workflow
中国燃气(0384.HK):城燃龙头焕新双轮驱动 高股息低估值价值优势明显
Ge Long Hui·2025-05-25 09:57

Core Viewpoint - China Gas's major shareholder is Beijing Enterprises Group, and the company has transformed its business model from engineering connections to a dual-driven approach of pipeline gas sales and value-added services. The pipeline gas sales business is expected to benefit from the continuous growth of domestic gas consumption and the ongoing improvement of pricing mechanisms for residential users, enhancing gas sales margins. The value-added services have upgraded from kitchen scenarios to family scenarios, indicating long-term growth potential. The company's current PE/PB valuations are at the 29% and 6% percentiles of the past decade, respectively, with dividend yields for fiscal years 2022, 2023, and 2024 at 5.48%, 4.52%, and 7.08%, showcasing a clear advantage of high dividends and low valuations. The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be HKD 3.921 billion, HKD 4.316 billion, and HKD 4.755 billion, respectively, initiating coverage with a "Buy" rating [1][6]. Company Background - The major shareholder of the company is Beijing Enterprises Group, holding approximately 23.5% of the shares. The company has rapidly expanded its urban gas business operations across 27 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China through both organic growth and acquisitions. Additionally, the company is actively developing value-added services to create new performance growth points [1]. Business Transition - The company's main business has shifted from engineering connections to pipeline gas sales, with a noticeable slowdown in performance decline. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of HKD 35.11 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.62%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 1.761 billion, down 3.81% year-on-year. The segment profit from pipeline gas sales reached HKD 1.658 billion, accounting for 42.99% of total profits, while value-added services contributed 25.99% [2]. Residential User Impact - The company has a high proportion of residential users, which enhances its revenue elasticity. The trend of natural gas consumption in China has shown consistent growth over the past decade, with a return to growth in 2022. The company expects steady growth in gas consumption in the future. With the gradual decline in overseas natural gas prices, the company anticipates a moderate decrease in contract gas prices, which will strengthen its pricing advantage [3]. Connection Business Decline - The company's connection business has seen a rapid decline due to the post-real estate cycle downturn and slow progress in coal-to-gas conversions. The contribution of connection business to overall profits has decreased significantly, with operating profit from this segment accounting for only 19.43% in fiscal year 2024. Despite the decline, the company has connected 48.37 million pipeline gas users, with a residential user penetration rate of 70.9% [4]. Value-Added Services Growth - The company focuses on value-added services through its subsidiary, Yipinhui, which operates in the family living technology sector. As of March 2024, Yipinhui's business has expanded to 27 provinces and municipalities, covering over 600 cities. The revenue from value-added services reached HKD 3.655 billion in fiscal year 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.78%, indicating a successful strategic upgrade from kitchen to family scenarios [5]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to see steady growth in pipeline gas sales, contributing to long-term profit increases. The residential pricing mechanism is anticipated to help restore gas sales margins, while the rapid development of value-added services is expected to create a second growth curve. The company forecasts revenues of HKD 82.293 billion, HKD 85.958 billion, and HKD 89.909 billion for fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with net profits of HKD 3.921 billion, HKD 4.316 billion, and HKD 4.755 billion, respectively, initiating coverage with a "Buy" rating [6].