俄罗斯经济，“越打越富”还是“濒临崩溃”？

Group 1: Economic Performance and Trends - Since the onset of the Ukraine crisis in February 2022, Western sanctions have led to a 2.1% decline in the Russian economy in 2022, but a rebound occurred in 2023 with a growth of 3.6%, and a projected growth of 4.1% in 2024 [1] - The resilience of the Russian economy is notable, with a shift towards a "wartime economy" characterized by military orders and manufacturing expansion [5][6] - The agricultural sector in Russia has seen rapid development, reflecting the state's focus on ensuring public welfare despite sanctions and war [9] Group 2: Global Context and Geopolitical Factors - The current global transformation is marked by a shift from a Western-dominated order to a multipolar world, influenced by significant changes in domestic systems and foreign strategies of major countries [2][4] - The "Trump 2.0" era is seen as a critical backdrop for understanding the global transition, with implications for Russia's economic strategies and international relations [2][5] Group 3: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the growth, Russia's economic transformation faces challenges such as a projected slowdown in growth post-2025, ongoing Western sanctions, declining birth rates, and a lack of skilled labor [9][14] - The impact of the U.S. tariff war, although not directly affecting Russia, could have significant indirect effects, particularly through fluctuations in oil prices, which constitute a third of Russia's budget [13][14] - The volatility of the Russian ruble poses additional challenges, as its appreciation could diminish the competitiveness of Russian energy exports [14]