A股分析师前瞻：两个关注点，小微盘的拥挤度与6月的日历效应

Group 1 - The focus of brokerage strategies this week is on the crowdedness of small-cap stocks and the calendar effect in June [1][6] - Historical data shows that the performance of major dividend assets in June is significantly weaker, with the probability of outperforming the CSI 300 and Wind All A being only 25% and 12.5% respectively, and the probability of an increase at only 37.5%, which is a noticeable decline compared to May [1][2] - The negative calendar effect in June for dividend assets may be related to the concentrated dividend payouts during this period, leading some funds to cash out before and after the dividend dates [1][3] Group 2 - The technology growth sector is expected to become the market's main focus in June, as it has reached a more favorable valuation range after adjustments [3][9] - The crowdedness in various technology sub-sectors has decreased to a relatively low level, with TMT's rolling 40-day return difference recently rebounding from a -10% historical low, although it remains at a historically low level [3][9] - The trading volume of TMT has dropped to around 22%-23%, which is lower than the levels seen during most adjustments in 2023 and 2024 [3][9] Group 3 - The small-cap index has seen increased volatility since reaching a high crowdedness state with a trading volume share of 30% in 2023, indicating potential risks from market sentiment shifts and policy statements [6][9] - Recent data shows that the enthusiasm for small-cap stocks has decreased, with a notable decline in the speed of capital inflow and a drop in new A-share account openings compared to the previous year [6][7] - The market is expected to continue a range-bound consolidation pattern, with small-cap styles potentially facing a phase of adjustment [9][10]