银行可转债或将迎新一轮提前赎回潮

Core Viewpoint - The banking convertible bond market is likely to experience a new wave of early redemption as several bank convertible bonds approach their redemption thresholds, highlighting the scarcity of blue-chip convertible bonds in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Early Redemption Triggers - Hangzhou Bank's convertible bond (杭银转债) is on the verge of triggering early redemption, with its stock price consistently above the required threshold [2]. - Nanjing Bank's convertible bond (南银转债) is also nearing its early redemption phase, as its stock price has surpassed the redemption price [3]. - The overall performance of bank stocks has been strong, with the China Securities Banking Index rising by 44.84% in 2024, contributing to the upward trend in bank convertible bond prices [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The issuance of new convertible bonds this year is only 17 billion yuan, significantly lower than the amount being delisted, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [1]. - The scarcity of blue-chip convertible bonds is expected to increase as more bank convertible bonds are redeemed, while the supply of smaller convertible bonds remains high, potentially increasing market volatility [1][4]. - The market is anticipated to shrink due to natural expirations of convertible bonds, with a notable reduction in available supply as 50 billion yuan of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank's convertible bonds approach maturity [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The strategy of investing in low-priced convertible bonds is facing challenges as the market shifts, with many bank convertible bonds now in the mid to high price range [5]. - Analysts suggest that the current market has about 10 bank convertible bonds, with total outstanding amounts potentially decreasing from 170 billion yuan to around 100 billion yuan, increasing the scarcity of large bank convertible bonds [5]. - Public funds are expected to adjust their performance evaluation mechanisms, leading to a potential increase in the allocation of high-rated, undervalued bank convertible bonds, which may present opportunities for excess returns [5].