Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-05-25 18:00Group 1 - Long-term bond yields in developed countries are experiencing significant increases, with both US and Japanese bonds facing challenges in recent auctions, leading to record high yields [1][2] - The downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's has raised concerns about fiscal deficits, contributing to a sell-off in long-term US bonds, with 20-year and 30-year Treasury yields surpassing 5% [2][3] - Japan's long-term bond market is under pressure, with the 30-year yield reaching 3.197% and the 40-year yield hitting 3.695%, marking the worst auction results since 2012 [3][4] Group 2 - The interconnectedness of developed countries' bond markets is increasing, with high debt levels in the US and Japan leading to a potential fiscal crisis, as evidenced by their debt-to-GDP ratios of 123% and 260% respectively by May 2025 [5][6] - The trend of "de-dollarization" is emerging, with capital flowing out of the US and into non-US assets, highlighting the strategic value of emerging tech markets and non-dollar assets [5][6] - The current global market is characterized by high fiscal deficits and increasing bond supply, while the number of buyers is decreasing, creating upward pressure on long-term interest rates [6]