被迫上调利率，银行利润快被卷到裤衩里了？

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in mortgage rates in Guangzhou, despite expectations of a rate cut by the central bank, reflects banks' strategies to maintain profitability while navigating market dynamics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Mortgage Rate Adjustments - Several banks in Guangzhou have adjusted the first-home mortgage rate from LPR minus 60 basis points to minus 50 basis points, raising the effective rate from 3% to 3.1% [3][4]. - This adjustment is a preemptive move by banks to protect their profit margins, especially as the LPR is anticipated to decrease [4][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current real estate market is experiencing a "spiral decline," where property owners are lowering prices to increase transaction volumes, leading to faster price drops [4][5]. - The strategy of "downward replacement" is gaining traction, where investors are selling higher-value properties to acquire lower-cost, high-rental-yield properties [5][6]. Group 3: Real Estate Tax Considerations - The implementation of a real estate tax is unlikely in the short term due to the current stabilization of the housing market, with legislative complexities further delaying its introduction [6][7]. - If a real estate tax is introduced, it may focus on property owners with multiple low-yield properties, while ordinary homeowners are expected to be exempt from taxation [8][9]. Group 4: Investment Perspective - The essence of housing is shifting towards residential use, with investment attributes diminishing, suggesting a need for investors to reassess their strategies [10][11]. - Enhancing personal income potential may be more beneficial than focusing solely on property price fluctuations [11].