凯德北京投资基金管理有限公司：美国就业市场韧性不减，但长期隐患犹在！

Group 1 - The U.S. job market shows resilience despite increasing uncertainty in global trade policies, with initial jobless claims decreasing by 2,000 to 227,000, the lowest in four weeks [1] - The number of individuals continuing to claim unemployment benefits has increased to 1.9 million, indicating some long-term unemployed individuals still rely on these benefits [1] - Overall, the decline in initial jobless claims reflects relative stability in hiring and employee allocation by U.S. companies, maintaining a certain level of labor demand despite trade tensions [1] Group 2 - Not all experts are optimistic about the future economic outlook, as St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem noted that tariffs may continue to suppress economic activity, potentially putting pressure on the labor market [3] - Major companies like Nike and Amazon have announced layoffs, aligning with the trend of cost-cutting and workforce reduction in response to economic uncertainty [3] - The four-week moving average of unemployment claims has risen to 231,500, the highest level since October of the previous year, indicating potential long-term weakness in the job market [5] Group 3 - Some states, particularly Michigan and Virginia, have seen significant declines in initial jobless claims, suggesting regional variations in labor market conditions [5] - Despite current employment data indicating that the labor market has not entered a recession, there are notable risks from global trade policies and economic factors that could exert greater pressure on the U.S. job market in the future [5] - The ability of the U.S. job market to maintain its current resilience in the face of increasing economic uncertainty remains challenging in the coming months [5]