Why June Will Be a Make-or-Break Month for Tesla

Core Insights - The autonomous driving revolution is anticipated to gain significant momentum in 2025, with Waymo already operational in several cities and reportedly surpassing Lyft in certain areas of San Francisco [1] - Tesla is set to launch its autonomous robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, next month, which is crucial for its valuation and shareholder expectations [2][3] - Elon Musk predicts that by the end of 2026, there could be hundreds of thousands to a million Teslas operating in self-driving mode across the U.S. [5][6] Group 1: Tesla's Market Position and Valuation - Tesla's valuation heavily relies on the success of its autonomous robotaxi service, especially as its standalone auto sales are facing challenges, with a 13% decline in last quarter's deliveries [7][10] - Ark Invest values Tesla's stock at $2,600 per share, attributing 90$450 billion by 2033, with Ark estimating Tesla's potential revenue from robotaxis to be between $600 billion and$950 billion by 2029 [13] - Waymo, despite being undervalued, has a five-year head start and is currently making 250,000 rides per week, enhancing its safety reputation [16] - Waymo is also expanding its manufacturing capabilities with a new factory in Phoenix, which will increase its vehicle fleet and potentially lower costs [20][21] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The success of Tesla's robotaxi service is uncertain, particularly if the initial rollout does not meet expectations or if it fails to outperform Waymo's service [15][21] - Waymo's CEO has raised concerns about Tesla's camera-only approach, suggesting it may not perform as well in low-light conditions compared to Waymo's sensor suite [17] - Waymo's costs are expected to decrease over time, which could further challenge Tesla's competitive position in the market [18][19]