二手房今年能否触底反弹

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the perception of housing price decline has become widely accepted, even among the general public, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment [1] - The concept of "bottoming out" does not necessarily imply a rebound; it is essential to understand that market prices fluctuate around intrinsic value [3] - Current housing prices are heavily influenced by factors such as school district qualifications and neighborhood quality, suggesting that prices may still be overvalued [4] Group 2 - The rise in housing prices in the past was partly due to the need to create a capital pool during the RMB defense campaign, which prevented capital flight [4] - China currently possesses a complete industrial chain and remains a stable region, making a repeat of past housing price surges unlikely [6] - Future housing price increases will likely be tied to economic growth rather than speculative investments, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6] Group 3 - In cities like Shijiazhuang, current housing prices are comparable to those from 2015, but depreciation over the past decade must be considered, suggesting that the market has not yet reached its lowest point [7] - The potential for further price declines exists, particularly for older second-hand homes, which may see significant depreciation due to age and market supply-demand changes [8] - The future price of older properties, especially those over ten years old, may drop significantly, reflecting a broader trend in the market [8]