面对通胀压力，俄央行维持21%基准利率

Group 1 - The current annual inflation rate in Russia is 10.3%, with a seasonally adjusted price growth rate of 8.3% in the first quarter, lower than the projected 12.9% for Q4 2024, indicating significant achievements from the Central Bank's previous measures [3] - The Central Bank of Russia plans to maintain a tight monetary policy to ensure the inflation rate returns to the target level of 4% by 2026, which implies high interest rates and restrictions on consumption and credit will persist for an extended period [3] - The average benchmark interest rate for this year is projected to be between 19.5% and 21.5%, decreasing to 13.0% to 14.0% by 2026, with expectations that the inflation rate will drop to 7% to 8% by the end of this year and to 4% by 2026 [3] Group 2 - The Russian economy is deviating from a balanced growth trajectory, with rising household incomes and active budget spending being the main drivers of domestic demand [4] - Economic growth has slowed in the first quarter compared to the end of 2024, indicating a shift towards a more sustainable development model, while the labor market shows low unemployment but some relief in labor shortages across various regions and industries [4] - Wage growth is expected to be lower this year compared to the previous two years, although it will still exceed labor productivity growth, adding pressure to prices [4] Group 3 - Inflation risks may rise in the medium term due to sustained domestic demand, stable inflation expectations, and potential deterioration in external trade conditions [4] - Global economic weakness, falling oil prices, or escalating geopolitical tensions could pressure the ruble exchange rate, leading to further price increases in Russia [4] - The Central Bank does not rule out the risk of deflation, which could arise from a sharp decline in domestic demand, accelerated credit cooling, and improvements in the external economic environment [4]