罗思义|“躁郁症式”分析不可取：什么是决定中美竞争胜负的关键？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the trade conflict between China and the U.S. is a long-term battle rather than a single event, and understanding the economic dynamics of both countries is crucial for strategic planning [1][2][4] - The article emphasizes the importance of recognizing the underlying factors that influence long-term economic growth in both the U.S. and China, rather than focusing solely on short-term fluctuations [4][5] - It critiques the "manic-depressive" analysis of the U.S. economy, which oscillates between exaggerated optimism and pessimism, suggesting that such views misrepresent the actual economic conditions [3][5][6] Group 2 - The U.S. financial markets have shown volatility since the announcement of tariffs, but these fluctuations are within the normal economic cycle range, indicating no immediate crisis [34] - The article discusses the performance of the U.S. stock market, noting that significant declines have occurred but are less severe than in previous economic downturns, suggesting stability in the long-term outlook [19][24][27] - The U.S. dollar index experienced a notable drop following the tariff announcement but rebounded after strategic concessions from the Trump administration, reflecting the complex interplay between policy decisions and market reactions [28][33]