东盟观察丨东南亚多国一季度经济增速放缓，出口预期不稳致亚太股市转跌

Group 1: Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock markets experienced mixed performance, with the Jakarta Composite Index rising by 1.51% while the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index fell by 2.31% [1][3] - The Nikkei 225 Index and KOSPI Index both saw declines of 1.57% and 1.32% respectively, indicating a broader trend of downward movement in major indices [1][3] - Analysts suggest that the recent fluctuations in the Asia-Pacific stock markets are normal market volatility, influenced by global macroeconomic changes and structural adjustments within certain industries [3] Group 2: Economic Growth in Southeast Asia - Five out of six major Southeast Asian economies are experiencing a slowdown in economic growth, with Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand revising their growth forecasts downward [4][5] - Singapore's GDP growth for Q1 was reported at 3.9%, with a forecasted annual growth rate adjusted to between 0% and 2%, down from a previous estimate of 1% to 3% [4][5] - Other Southeast Asian countries, including Indonesia and Vietnam, also reported lower GDP growth rates compared to previous quarters, indicating a regional trend of economic deceleration [5][6] Group 3: Impact of U.S. Tax Policies - The potential implementation of U.S. tax cuts under President Trump is raising concerns about increasing deficit rates, which could negatively affect investor sentiment towards Asian capital markets [2][6] - The anticipated rise in U.S. deficit rates and the resulting high bond yields may lead to a shift in investment strategies, causing some Asian markets to weaken [2][6] Group 4: Japanese Bond Market Dynamics - The Japanese bond market is facing significant pressure, with a notable decline in demand and a rise in yields, attributed to higher inflation and potential fiscal stimulus measures [7] - The supply-demand imbalance in the Japanese bond market has contributed to upward pressure on global bond yields, particularly affecting U.S. Treasury yields [7]