全面推行现房销售，为什么是信阳？

Core Viewpoint - The city of Xinyang in Henan has become the first in China to fully implement a "current housing sales" policy, which requires that properties must be completed and pass inspection before they can be sold, effectively overturning the traditional pre-sale model [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The new policy mandates that newly sold land must be sold as completed properties, meaning developers can only sell homes after they are built and inspected [3]. - Existing projects that have already started construction can still sell under the old pre-sale rules, creating a transitional phase for the market [3]. - This shift aims to reduce risks for homebuyers, as it minimizes the chances of unfinished projects and fraud [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Xinyang's real estate market is under significant pressure, with new home sales area expected to decline by 7.8% in 2024, and real estate investment plummeting by 16.2% [4]. - The city faces a severe population issue, with a net outflow of 2.79 million people, leading to a situation where one in three residents is leaving for work elsewhere [4]. - The number of newborns has drastically decreased from 89,000 in 2019 to just 37,000 in 2023, indicating a demographic crisis [4]. Group 3: National Trends - Over 30 provinces and cities across China have begun experimenting with current housing sales since late 2022, indicating a growing trend [6]. - The proportion of current housing sales nationwide has surged from 10% in 2020 to 32% by February 2025, marking a ten-year high [7]. - However, the transition to widespread current housing sales faces challenges, particularly due to the financial strain on developers, as construction timelines extend from two years to four or five years [7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The shift from a "seller's market" to a "buyer's market" is evident, with an increasing inventory of unsold homes leading to longer sales cycles [9]. - In Xinyang, the inventory turnover period is projected to be 20 months, with a significant increase in the number of second-hand homes listed for sale [9]. - The current housing sales model may lead to price differentiation, with premium properties in major cities seeing price increases, while weaker markets may experience accelerated market clearing [10].