原木运输成本与定价关联性研究

Global Timber Trade Situation - Over the past decade, global timber trade has experienced significant fluctuations influenced by economic growth and international trade policies. From 1990 to 2007, there was a substantial increase in global timber trade volume, with China's demand for logs rising sharply. However, following the financial crisis, global timber trade volume briefly declined from 271 million cubic meters in 2007 to 199 million cubic meters in 2009. Subsequently, the trade volume grew rapidly, reaching a peak of 306 million cubic meters in 2018, but has been declining since then due to factors such as trade policies, weather, and the COVID-19 pandemic [1][3][4]. China's Timber Trade Situation - China is the largest importer of softwood timber globally, with minimal exports of logs. In terms of import composition, logs account for approximately 50%, alongside sawn timber, wood fiberboard, and pulp. In 2024, China's log import volume is projected to be around 36.1 million cubic meters, with an import value of approximately 59.396 billion yuan. The primary source of softwood logs imported by China is radiata pine from New Zealand, followed by spruce and fir from Europe [4][8][9]. Major Timber Import Sources - China primarily imports logs from Russia, New Zealand, and the United States. However, following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Russia has banned the export of its logs. The import volume from New Zealand remains significant and stable, warranting close attention [8][9]. Major Trade Ports - Shandong province is a key area for log consumption, boasting a comprehensive processing industry and significant price influence. It serves as the main trading and delivery hub for logs in China. Other notable ports include Zhangjiagang in Jiangsu, which is the largest tropical timber import port, and Caofeidian in Hebei, designated by the Canadian government as a designated receiving port for outbound timber. Qingdao port in Shandong has established a rail-sea intermodal transport route for logs, enhancing the logistics network for timber imports [9][10]. Major Transportation Methods - The import of softwood logs into China primarily utilizes waterway and land transportation. Waterway transport is dominated by ocean shipping, with logs arriving from New Zealand, North America, and Southeast Asia. After reaching the port, wholesalers procure the logs and transport them via rail or road to secondary wholesale or retail markets. Land transport relies on rail and road networks, with logs from Russia and other European regions mainly entering through rail, offering stable transport times and lower logistics costs [10][11]. Shipping Costs and Trends - The local pricing of logs in New Zealand typically uses the AWG price, which includes procurement, transport, and packaging costs before reaching the port, excluding shipping costs. When exporting, New Zealand adopts the CFR pricing model, where shipping costs significantly impact the overall price. Recent trends indicate that shipping costs have been rising, with shipping fees accounting for approximately 30% of the log import price over the past two years [22][23]. Shipping Indices - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and the Baltic Handy Size Index (BHSI) are commonly used reference indicators for tracking global log shipping costs. BDI reflects the overall dry bulk shipping price, while BHSI specifically tracks the rates for handy-sized bulk carriers, which are primarily used for transporting logs. The choice of index is crucial for accurately assessing shipping costs related to log transportation [25][26].