关税政策屡生变数，美联储今年票委发声：降息门槛更高了

Group 1 - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee indicated that the policy environment has become more complex due to President Trump's latest tariff threats, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate adjustments [1] - Goolsbee warned that new tariff policies could create "stagflation effects," which would simultaneously raise inflation and suppress economic growth, presenting a challenging situation for the central bank [1] - On the same day, Trump announced a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1 and stated that Apple would face a 25% tariff if it did not manufacture iPhones in the U.S., highlighting the uncertainty in trade policy as a new market risk [1] Group 2 - Goolsbee expressed optimism about the long-term growth prospects of the U.S. economy prior to the announcement of tariffs, believing that if the economy remains on a path of gradually declining inflation and full employment, interest rates could significantly decrease within the next 10 to 16 months [2] - He emphasized the need for the Federal Reserve to maintain flexibility and avoid pre-setting paths for upcoming policy meetings, indicating uncertainty in the current policy trajectory [2] - The current target range for the Federal Funds rate is 4.25% to 4.50%, unchanged since December 2024, with the latest actual trading rate at 4.33% [2]