日本通胀持续，增长担忧与市场波动加剧

Group 1 - The core inflation indicators in Japan show persistent inflationary pressures, with the overall CPI steady at 3.6% year-on-year, significantly above the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) target of 2% [1] - The core CPI, excluding fresh food, rose to 3.5%, the highest in over two years, surpassing the expected 3.4% [1] - The core-core CPI, excluding fresh food and energy, increased to 3.0%, indicating widespread price pressures beyond volatile sectors [1] Group 2 - Japan's economic momentum is weakening, with Q1 2025 GDP contracting by 0.2%, leading to an annualized rate of -0.7%, raising concerns about stagflation risks [2] - The economic weakness is primarily driven by cost-push inflation, influenced by rising import costs due to global tensions and domestic wage increases from recent "Shunto" negotiations [2] - Real wages, adjusted for inflation, have contracted over the past three months, limiting household purchasing power and complicating the BoJ's policy decisions [2] Group 3 - The Japanese bond market is experiencing increased volatility due to persistent inflation and growth concerns, with the 10-year bond yield approaching 1.65%, nearing a ten-year high [4] - The 40-year bond yield surged to approximately 3.7%, rising by 100 basis points since April, reflecting investor concerns over inflation risks and fiscal sustainability [5] Group 4 - The yen has gained some support due to rising bond yields and a weak dollar, but its movement remains highly sensitive to domestic policy signals and global interest rate trends [6] - The BoJ faces a critical challenge in balancing the need to curb inflation expectations while avoiding a more significant economic slowdown [6] Group 5 - Market implications include expectations for continued upward movement in long-term bond yields as the market prices in potential policy normalization [7] - If the BoJ maintains a hawkish stance and global yields stabilize, the yen may strengthen moderately [7] - Caution is advised in the stock market, as tightening policies and yen appreciation could suppress corporate earnings, particularly affecting export and domestic demand sectors [7]