机构：三季度债市利率或仍有下行空间，30年国债ETF(511090)连续3天净流入，合计“吸金”7亿元

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF has shown significant growth in liquidity and scale, indicating strong investor interest and potential for capital gains as interest rates may decline further in the upcoming quarters [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 26, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) increased by 0.11%, with the latest price at 123.44 yuan [1]. - The ETF experienced a turnover rate of 5.55% during the trading session, with a total transaction volume of 1.024 billion yuan [1]. - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF reached 18.415 billion yuan, marking a new high in nearly a year [1]. - The ETF's latest share count reached 150 million shares, also a new high in nearly a year [1]. Group 2: Fund Inflows - Over the past three days, the 30-year Treasury ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a peak single-day net inflow of 320 million yuan, totaling 700 million yuan in net inflows [1]. - The average daily net inflow stands at 233 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - According to Guotai Junan Securities, the recent compression of interest rate spreads suggests that there may still be room for further declines in bond market rates in the third quarter [1]. - The ability to capitalize on potential rate declines for capital gains will be crucial for determining annual returns [1]. - The current compression of yield spreads in coupon-bearing assets indicates a need for the market to identify the next strategic rotation direction [1]. - From a medium to long-term asset pricing perspective, using loan rates as a benchmark is deemed more reasonable, with potential rate cuts in the third quarter likely to drive further declines in interest rates [1].