瀚亚投资：中国H股及A股的估值仍然有吸引力 为自下而上的投资者带来机会

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that significant uncertainties from tariffs and U.S. policies will suppress global economic growth in 2025, with U.S. growth expected to slow to 1.2-1.5% and a downward risk bias [1] - The implementation of a 30% tariff on certain Chinese goods and a 10% tariff on all goods from other countries represents a tax increase equivalent to approximately 1.5% of U.S. GDP, marking one of the largest single-year tax hikes in decades [1] - The anticipated slowdown in U.S. economic growth and ongoing geopolitical pressures are expected to lead to further capital outflows from the dollar over the next year [1] Group 2 - Most Asian currencies are expected to strengthen to some extent due to the depreciation of the dollar, with controlled inflation in Asia and emerging markets providing central banks the space to cut interest rates to support economic growth [1] - The dual effect of currency appreciation and interest rate cuts is expected to enhance the attractiveness of Asian asset markets to international capital flows [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the long-term direction of tariff negotiations may continue to trigger intermittent market volatility, prompting investors to seek further diversification in their portfolios [1] Group 3 - Japan remains one of the lowest-valued markets globally based on price-to-book (P/B) ratios, while Chinese H-shares and A-shares still present attractive valuations for bottom-up investors [2] - Despite being perceived as overvalued at the beginning of 2025, the Indian stock market continues to show resilience due to supportive measures from the Reserve Bank of India, low oil prices, and stable domestic capital flows [2] - The bond market offers multiple opportunities to acquire quality assets at ideal valuations, with local currency bonds in Asia showing attractive investment prospects due to appealing real yields and strong economic fundamentals [2] Group 4 - Investors are advised to adopt a defensive strategy to cope with future market pressures, with low volatility strategies recommended to minimize downside risks while allowing participation in market uptrends [2]