行业观察丨碳约束下的水泥业变局：落后产能加速淘汰，绿色转型成新赛道

Core Viewpoint - The inclusion of the cement industry in the national carbon emissions trading market signifies a profound transformation in cost, technology, and competitive landscape, presenting both challenges and opportunities for industry transformation [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The Chinese cement industry is experiencing its most severe downturn in nearly a decade, with a projected reduction of 550 million tons in national cement production by 2024 compared to 2021, leading to pressure on the market capitalization of listed companies [1] - The decline in real estate investment and infrastructure growth has resulted in a "cliff-like" drop in cement demand, exacerbated by overcapacity and intense competition among companies [2] - The industry faces challenges such as reduced mutual trust among enterprises and chaotic competition, making effective collaboration difficult and intensifying market confusion [2] Group 2: Opportunities from Carbon Market Inclusion - The implementation of the carbon emissions trading market is expected to drive the cement industry from a high-carbon path to a low-carbon competitive landscape, accelerating innovation and application of low-carbon technologies [3] - The carbon market will encourage companies to adopt advanced production processes, improve energy efficiency, and reduce carbon emissions, enhancing their market competitiveness and promoting a positive green brand image [3][4] - Companies can generate new revenue streams by selling surplus carbon allowances, attracting investments from green funds and financial institutions, thereby broadening financing channels and reducing costs [4] Group 3: Long-term Implications - The carbon market will necessitate increased investments in energy-saving renovations, low-carbon technologies, and materials to lower carbon emission intensity, which is essential for reducing costs associated with purchasing shortfall allowances [5] - The initial phase of the carbon market implementation (2024-2026) provides a transition period for the cement industry, allowing it to adapt without losing price advantages compared to non-participating companies [6] - Despite current market demand decline, the cement industry is expected to remain a crucial raw material in the construction sector due to the large economic scale of the country [6]