玻璃：降价去库盘面新低 库存压力仍存

Core Viewpoint - The float glass industry is experiencing a decline in prices and inventory reduction, with production levels remaining stable but not showing significant growth [1] Industry Summary - The average operating rate in the float glass industry increased slightly to 75.34%, with an average capacity utilization rate of 78.2%, reflecting a minor increase [1] - Weekly production rose to 1.0971 million tons, with a daily output of 156,700 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous period [1] - National real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year-on-year from January to April, with completed housing area down by 16.9% [1] - Total inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 0.46% to 67.769 million heavy boxes, but this is a 13.67% increase year-on-year [1] - Inventory days are at 30.6 days, a decrease of 0.4 days from the previous period [1] Cost and Profitability Summary - The costs of glass production from petroleum coke, coal, and natural gas are 1,194, 1,035, and 1,484 RMB/ton respectively, with changes of 19, -20, and -5 RMB/ton [1] - Production profits for these methods are -87, 84.4, and -160.8 RMB/ton, with changes of -17, -19.8, and -11.3 RMB/ton [1] Market Sentiment and Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a sell-off in the US Treasury market, leading to declines in US bonds, stocks, and the dollar, which has affected domestic market sentiment [1] - The production-demand balance has shifted to a dual weakness scenario, with various indicators declining compared to March [1] - The glass supply is increasing at low levels, while demand recovery in the real estate sector lacks sustainability [1] - Downstream procurement is primarily driven by low-demand purchases, with inventory pressures concentrated in upstream and midstream sectors [1] - The upcoming rainy season may lead to further inventory reduction strategies, with companies potentially offering discounts to lower stock levels [1] - Overall, the industry faces inventory pressure and price reduction expectations, with a weak fundamental backdrop, while short-term price declines may slow down [1]