谦恒配资|日债暴跌，冲击全球金融市场

Group 1 - The focus of funds has shifted from monetary policy and growth risks to fiscal deficits and turmoil in the bond market, with significant declines in long-term government bonds in Japan and the US raising concerns about rising capital costs [1][3] - The Japanese government bond (JGB) market has seen a rare surge in attention, with the 30-year bond yield reaching levels not seen since 1999, driven by factors such as poor auction results and heavy government debt burdens [3][4] - The absence of life insurance companies in the bond market has played a critical role in the turmoil, as rising inflation has diminished their interest in long-term bonds, despite the government's efforts to reduce issuance [3][4] Group 2 - The US Senate narrowly passed a tax bill that could increase the national debt ceiling by $4 trillion, leading to a sharp decline in US Treasury bonds, with the 30-year yield approaching a 20-year high of 5.1% [5][6] - The US national debt has surged by $13 trillion in the last five years, raising concerns about sustainability, with projections indicating that the debt could reach $36 trillion by the end of Trump's presidency [5][6] - The ratio of US debt to GDP is quickly approaching the 120% warning threshold, with major rating agencies downgrading the US's top sovereign credit rating, although the government is still able to meet its debt obligations due to the Federal Reserve's support [6][7] Group 3 - The upcoming focus will be on the long-term bond trends in the US and Japan, particularly whether the long-term yields have peaked in the short term, with the Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes expected to provide insights into rising risks of high unemployment and inflation [7]