白酒“魔法”背后：业绩光鲜下的行业隐忧

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market's liquor sector demonstrates resilience with revenue and net profit growth of 7.29% and 7.41% respectively in FY2024, maintaining a decade-long trend of dual growth in revenue and profit, despite stock prices being generally sluggish [1] Financial Performance - Liquor companies have extended their payment terms, moving away from the traditional "payment before delivery" practice, leading to a significant increase in operating days by 62 days, reaching a ten-year high with an average operating cycle exceeding 700 days [1] - The rapid increase in inventory turnover days, alongside a decrease in contract liabilities and a rise in accounts receivable, indicates growing sales pressure despite seemingly strong performance metrics [2] Sales Strategies - To alleviate sales pressure, liquor companies have relaxed their policies, resulting in a 33% increase in accounts receivable, totaling an additional 1.4 billion, while contract liabilities decreased by approximately 11.7 billion, a 20.93% decline [4] - Companies have adopted a price reduction strategy to boost sales volume, with overall prices dropping by about 12%, leading to a decline in the growth rate of mid-to-high-end products, with nearly half of the companies reporting a decrease in this segment [4][5] Marketing and Distribution - Increased marketing efforts have led to a rise in sales expense ratios, but this strategy has not significantly improved net profit margins, compressing competitive space within price ranges [5] - Liquor companies have expanded their distribution channels, particularly increasing the number of distributors, which may indicate a response to industry challenges rather than a standard optimization of the distribution system [9] Future Outlook - The short-term strategies employed by liquor companies, such as extending payment terms, price reductions, and expanding distribution channels, may mask the underlying sales pressure [12] - The industry faces a critical challenge in identifying new growth points and achieving sustainable development amid an impending industry turning point [12]