全球抛售美债潮开始？穆迪这一刀砍出了比2008年更危险的信号

Core Points - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from "AAA" to "Aa1" on May 16, 2025, due to rising deficits and interest costs over the past decades [1][5] - The downgrade signifies the loss of the last perfect credit rating for the U.S., marking a significant shift in its financial standing [2][3] - This downgrade is the first time in over a century that the U.S. has lost its perfect credit rating, potentially indicating the beginning of a decline for the country [3][5] Financial Metrics - The total U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, accounting for 124% of GDP, with interest payments rising from 9% of federal revenue in 2021 to 18% in 2024 [6] - Interest payments on U.S. debt have doubled in just three years, a rare occurrence, and projections suggest that by 2035, debt could rise to 134% of GDP, consuming 30% of federal revenue [7] - The fiscal deficit for the first half of the 2025 fiscal year has already exceeded $1.3 trillion, marking the second-highest half-year deficit in history [9] Market Reactions - Following the downgrade, U.S. stock index futures fell over 0.4%, and the dollar index dropped by 15 points, indicating a loss of confidence in U.S. assets [13] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds increased by 5 basis points to 4.49%, suggesting rising future financing costs for the U.S. [13] - The downgrade may weaken the status of U.S. Treasuries as a global safe-haven asset, leading investors to demand higher risk premiums [13][15] Political Context - The U.S. Congress has been unable to reach a substantial agreement on deficit reduction, with proposed tax cuts facing bipartisan opposition [13] - Former President Trump's attempts to address the trade deficit and increase tariffs to boost revenue have shown limited success, highlighting the challenges in managing the debt crisis [10][13] Long-term Implications - The downgrade by Moody's could signal a more dangerous economic situation than the 2008 financial crisis, as it stems from national debt rather than mortgage debt [15] - The ongoing rise in debt and interest payments poses significant challenges for the U.S., raising questions about the sustainability of its financial model [15]