估值折让10%、ROE反转、AI加速，大摩看好中国股市“结构性复苏”

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is at a pivotal turning point, showing signs of structural improvement despite ongoing macroeconomic challenges [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Indicators - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the MSCI China index has a total return of 16% in 2024 and 29% from September 24, 2024, to now, with a projected 15% return for 2025 YTD [2] - The report highlights a recovery in net asset return on equity (ROE) for Chinese companies, which is expected to rebound after hitting a low in the second half of 2024 [4] - The MSCI China index is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 11.1, approximately 10% lower than the MSCI Emerging Markets, indicating attractive valuation levels for long-term investors [13] Group 2: Economic and Policy Environment - The Chinese government has implemented a series of supportive policies for the private sector, which is expected to create a more favorable operating environment for businesses, particularly in technology and innovation [15] - The report notes that high-quality companies focusing on technology and shareholder returns are increasingly represented in the offshore Chinese stock market, enhancing overall market quality [10] Group 3: Sectoral Opportunities - China is demonstrating its capabilities in technological breakthroughs, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), which presents structural opportunities for investors, especially in technology and manufacturing upgrades [3] - The performance of Chinese AI models is improving, providing a competitive edge for Chinese companies globally due to cost-effectiveness [16] Group 4: Geopolitical Considerations - While geopolitical uncertainties remain a concern, the MSCI China index has limited exposure to the U.S. market, accounting for less than 3%, which is the lowest among the top ten emerging market trading partners of the U.S. [23]