交易商协会：2024年国债利率下行幅度近年来最大，国债收益率全部落于“2％”以下

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant decline in bond market interest rates for 2024, with the one-year government bond yield expected to drop to around 1.1%, a decrease of approximately 100 basis points, and the ten-year yield to 1.68%, down 88 basis points, marking the lowest levels recorded [2][3] Group 1: Bond Market Performance - The total issuance of various bonds in the market is projected to reach 79.62 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.4% [2] - By the end of 2024, the total custody amount in the bond market is expected to reach 177 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.3% year-on-year [2] - The overall trading volume in the market is anticipated to be 2735.44 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [2] Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - The report forecasts a unilateral downward trend in bond market interest rates for 2024, with one-year, ten-year, and thirty-year government bond yields expected to decline by 100, 88, and 91 basis points respectively, all falling below 2% [2] - The yields on both government and credit bonds are expected to decrease significantly, with credit spreads widening in the short term and narrowing in the medium to long term [2] Group 3: Factors Influencing Interest Rate Decline - The primary reasons for the substantial decline in interest rates include a weak financing demand from enterprises and households, with a preference for low-risk assets among residents [3] - The central bank's timely reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates, along with measures to guide down the comprehensive financing costs, are contributing to the downward pressure on rates [3] - A consensus among investors regarding the expectation of declining interest rates has further stimulated trading demand, leading to lower bond market yields [3]