国泰海通证券：情绪修复兑现，股市风偏回落

Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced a correction last week, with a risk preference retreating from high levels. The MSCI Global Index fell by 1.9%, with developed markets down by 2.1% and emerging markets down by 0.5% [3][10] - The Hang Seng Index showed the best performance among emerging markets, increasing by 1.1%, while the Korean Composite Index was the weakest, declining by 1.3% [3][10] Sector Performance - In the US market, defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples performed well, while technology sectors faced adjustments. The S&P 500 saw a decline of 2.6% [10] - In the European market, utilities and communication services led with gains of 2.6% and 2.3%, while consumer discretionary and energy sectors lagged behind [10] - The Hong Kong market saw significant gains in the materials and healthcare sectors, with increases of 6.1% and 5.6%, respectively [10] Valuation Trends - Developed markets' overall valuation decreased, with the latest PE and PB ratios at 21.9x and 3.5x, respectively, placing them at the 86% and 97% percentile levels since 2010 [21] - Emerging markets' valuations improved, with PE and PB ratios at 15x and 1.9x, respectively, at the 72% and 85% percentile levels since 2010 [22] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for global markets were mostly revised downwards, with Hong Kong showing a notable upward revision. The Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast was adjusted from 2214 to 2222 [27] - The S&P 500's 2025 EPS forecast was revised down from 264 to 263, with the consumer discretionary sector seeing the largest upward revision of +0.2% [27][28] Liquidity Conditions - Global liquidity conditions tightened marginally last week, with macro liquidity indicators showing a mixed trend across regions. The US and China saw interest rates decline, while European rates slightly increased [30] - The tightening of liquidity was reflected in the increase of long-term bond yields in major countries, with the UK, Japan, and the US seeing the largest increases [30] Economic Outlook - The economic outlook showed divergence, with the US economy experiencing a marginal decline in sentiment, as indicated by a drop in the manufacturing PMI to 48.7% [35] - In contrast, the European economy maintained stability, with the Eurozone manufacturing PMI at 49% and service PMI at 50.1%, indicating continued expansion [43]