暴风雨前的平静？野村：美日央行“不作为”或致“债券卫士”回归

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese long-term bond market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to a significant rise in yields for 10-year and 30-year Japanese government bonds, while U.S. Treasury yields are also increasing. Despite this volatility in the bond market, the stock market shows surprising resilience, indicating either market expectations of economic recovery or an impending correction in stock prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Nomura Securities reports that the current market situation may represent a "calm before the storm," with potential for increased volatility in the coming months as the June U.S.-Japan summit approaches, focusing on exchange rates and trade negotiations [2][6]. - The bond market's turmoil is not expected to trigger immediate policy changes from either the Bank of Japan or the U.S. government, as both institutions show a lack of concern regarding the bond market chaos [7][8]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Nomura suggests that investors should wait for opportunities to buy Japanese stocks, targeting entry points at approximately 2,600 for the TOPIX index and around 36,000 for the Nikkei 225 index [9][10]. - The firm has raised its yield expectations for 10-year and 30-year Japanese and U.S. government bonds, indicating a more cautious outlook on bond investments [9][10]. Group 3: Future Projections - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield is projected to range from 1.15% to 1.70% by the end of 2025, while the 30-year yield is expected to be between 2.60% and 3.20% [10]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is anticipated to fluctuate between 3.80% and 4.80% during the same period, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainties [10].