锌：供增需弱预期强，期价或震荡偏弱

Core Viewpoint - Zinc prices have been fluctuating within a range following a significant drop due to tariff announcements, with domestic zinc prices hovering between 21,900-22,800 CNY/ton and LME zinc prices around 2,700 USD/ton, influenced by macroeconomic sentiments rather than strong fundamental pressures [2][8]. Macroeconomic Factors - The US-China trade talks made significant progress in mid-May, with both sides agreeing to suspend additional tariffs for 90 days. However, the US has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, causing short-term volatility in financial markets [3]. - The bond market is showing signs of panic, with Japan's 20-year bond auction underperforming and Moody's downgrading the US credit rating, leading to a decline in the US dollar, US bonds, and US stocks simultaneously [3]. - China's social financing and M2 growth rates are stable, but new RMB loan data is disappointing, indicating a potential slowdown in key economic indicators [3]. Supply Side Dynamics - Global zinc mine production reached 1.0184 million tons in March, a month-on-month increase of 10.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. The cumulative production from January to March was 2.902 million tons, up 3.75% year-on-year [4]. - China's zinc concentrate production in April was 297,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%. Zinc ore imports surged to 494,700 tons in April, a 37.6% month-on-month increase and a 72.6% year-on-year increase [4]. - Domestic smelters are experiencing a rise in processing fees due to ample supply from both imported and domestic sources, with processing fees for domestic zinc concentrate averaging 3,650 CNY/ton in June [4]. Production Stability - Global refined zinc production in March was 1.1219 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 9.7% but a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%. China's refined zinc production in April was 576,000 tons, a slight decrease from March but a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [5]. - The profitability of smelters has improved, with production losses remaining below 500 CNY/ton, leading to expectations of increased production in the near future [5]. Inventory Levels - Domestic refined zinc inventories are gradually declining, with SMM's seven-city zinc ingot inventory at 80,400 tons as of May 22, which is low compared to previous years [6]. - LME zinc inventories have also seen a slight increase but remain at a low level, which may provide some support for zinc prices [6]. Demand Trends - Demand is showing signs of weakening as the peak season ends, with the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises recovering to around 62%, while die-casting zinc alloy enterprises have seen a drop to 56.41% [7]. - The construction sector remains stable, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in new housing starts and steady growth in infrastructure investment [7]. - However, production in the white goods sector has seen limited growth, with significant declines in refrigerator and television production [7]. Summary - Overall, the impact of tariffs is diminishing, and a weaker dollar is providing some support for non-ferrous metals. Despite low inventories providing price support, the expectation of increased supply against weak demand suggests that zinc prices may struggle to rise significantly in the short term, likely remaining in a weak oscillation [8][9].