美债“跌倒”，华尔街大行“吃饱”

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, while alarming for investors, may actually benefit banks due to a steeper yield curve that can enhance their profitability [1][4]. Group 1: Impact of Steeper Yield Curve - A steeper yield curve occurs when long-term interest rates rise faster than short-term rates, leading to a widening spread between the two, which is crucial for banks [2][3]. - The current spread between 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields has reached its widest point since 2022, indicating a favorable environment for banks [2]. Group 2: Bank Profitability and Net Interest Margin - Banks operate on a model of borrowing short-term (e.g., low-interest deposits) and lending long-term (e.g., mortgages, corporate loans), allowing them to profit from the interest rate spread, known as net interest margin [3][5]. - The net interest margin for major U.S. banks was reported at a median of 2.81% as of Q4 last year, below the historical average of 3.2%, but is expected to improve as the yield curve normalizes [5]. Group 3: Potential for Increased Earnings - As long-term rates rise, banks can invest in higher-yielding bonds, allowing them to roll over maturing low-rate bonds into new, higher-rate securities, thus increasing interest income and capital buffers [5][6]. - If regulatory requirements on bank capital are relaxed, banks will have more available funds, enhancing their resilience [6]. Group 4: Risks and Market Sentiment - Despite the potential benefits, rising long-term rates can also lead to increased paper losses on previously purchased low-rate bonds, posing liquidity risks if banks need to sell these assets quickly [7]. - The performance of bank stocks has been mixed, with the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index showing similar year-to-date gains as the S&P 500, reflecting market uncertainty [7].