ON Semiconductor Plunges 35% YTD: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - ON Semiconductor has experienced a significant decline in share price, losing 34.5% year to date, which is a stark contrast to the broader semiconductor industry and technology sector performance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, ON Semiconductor's revenues from the Power Solutions Group (PSG), Analog and Mixed Signals Group (AMG), and Intelligent Sensing Group (ISG) saw substantial declines, with PSG down 26.2%, AMG down 18.7%, and ISG down 19.7% year over year [2] - Automotive revenues, which account for 52.7% of total revenues, fell by 25.1% year over year, while Industrial revenues, making up 27.7% of revenues, declined by 16% year over year [3] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 decreased by 590 basis points to 40%, with management anticipating approximately 900 basis points of non-cash underabsorption charges for Q2 [9] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Weak demand in the automotive sector, influenced by geopolitical tensions and a slowdown in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, has adversely affected ON Semiconductor's growth [3] - The company is facing intense competition from peers such as Magnachip Semiconductor, NXP Semiconductors, and Analog Devices, with their shares also experiencing declines [5] - ON Semiconductor is contending with pricing pressure and low utilization rates, with manufacturing capacity utilized at only 60% in Q1 2025, which is expected to decline further [7][8] Group 3: Growth Opportunities - AI data centers have emerged as a significant growth market for ON Semiconductor, with revenues from this segment more than doubling year over year in Q1 2025 [4] - The company is leveraging its silicon carbide (SiC) technology, having recently acquired Qorvo's SiC JFET assets, and is targeting a 35-40% market share in the near future [13][14] - ON Semiconductor's SiC and silicon-based intelligent power portfolio is increasingly being adopted in uninterruptible power supply (UPS) systems, with expectations of revenue growth between 40% and 50% by 2025 [4][15] Group 4: Future Guidance - For Q2 2025, ON Semiconductor expects revenues between $1.40 billion and $1.50 billion, reflecting a 16.48% decline from the previous year [11] - Non-GAAP earnings for Q2 2025 are projected to be between 48 cents and 58 cents per share, indicating a steep 43.75% decline from the year-ago quarter [12]