财说| 负债率89%的宜宾纸业“跨界转型”蒙阴影

Core Viewpoint - Yibin Paper's stock price has nearly doubled in the past month, reaching a historical high, primarily driven by a related acquisition of a controlling stake in Sichuan Push Acetate Fiber Co., Ltd. from its parent company Wuliangye Group [1][2] Financial Performance - In 2024, Yibin Paper's revenue is expected to decline by 8.34% year-on-year, with a net loss expanding to 128 million yuan, while the gross margin of its traditional paper business has turned negative [1][6] - The company reported a revenue of 2.238 billion yuan in 2024, down 8.34% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -128 million yuan, a shift from profit to loss [6][8] Acquisition Details - Yibin Paper acquired 67% of Sichuan Push Acetate Fiber Co. for 206 million yuan, with the target company projected to generate a net profit of 149 million yuan in 2023 at a price-to-earnings ratio of only 2 [1][2] - The acquisition is seen as a strategic move to transform the business into high-barrier acetate fiber production, but faces significant integration challenges due to differing technologies and market channels [2][4] Debt and Financial Strain - Yibin Paper's debt ratio reached 91.69%, with a total debt of 2.54 billion yuan in short-term loans and 1.756 billion yuan in long-term loans, raising concerns about its financial sustainability [1][3] - The company is expected to incur fixed financial expenses of approximately 110 million yuan annually due to interest payments and debt repayments related to the acquisition [5][6] Industry Challenges - The paper industry is facing significant pressure, with Yibin Paper's paper product output declining by 18.79% and sales down by 9.7% in 2024 [7][8] - The average price of paper products has decreased by 5.7%, while production costs have increased by 11.2%, further squeezing profit margins [7][9] Market Valuation - Despite the short-term stock price surge, Yibin Paper's price-to-book ratio stands at 25 times, significantly higher than the industry average of 1.54 times, indicating potential long-term risks if performance does not meet expectations [10]