美债利率狂飙5%！美联储狂买348亿，这场庞氏游戏还能撑多久？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. debt crisis is escalating rapidly, with the national debt nearing $37 trillion, equating to 124% of GDP, and increasing by $1 trillion every three months, indicating a severe fiscal sustainability crisis [1][3]. Group 1: Debt and Credit Rating - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1 with a negative outlook, citing ineffective debt management by Congress and projected fiscal deficits worsening over the next decade [3]. - By 2035, interest payments on U.S. debt are expected to consume 30% of the federal budget, highlighting the fragility of fiscal health [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The confidence in U.S. Treasuries is rapidly eroding, with 20-year and 30-year Treasury yields surpassing 5%, reflecting significant investor sell-off [3][4]. - The recent auction of $150 billion in Treasuries resulted in only $78 billion in sales, indicating a $72 billion shortfall, which has prompted the Federal Reserve to intervene by purchasing $34.8 billion in 30-year Treasuries [3][4]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Rising Treasury yields are causing a broader increase in interest rates, with 30-year mortgage rates exceeding 7%, leading to higher corporate financing costs and potential revaluation of asset prices [4]. - The simultaneous rise in stock and bond yields suggests a shift of funds from Treasuries to riskier assets, raising concerns about U.S. fiscal stability and accelerating the de-dollarization trend globally [6]. Group 4: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve faces a challenging situation of needing to maintain high interest rates to combat inflation while also purchasing bonds to ensure liquidity in the Treasury market, creating policy uncertainty [6]. Group 5: Long-term Economic Outlook - The U.S. debt issue is fundamentally rooted in its economic development model and institutional flaws, with potential long-term consequences for the credibility of the dollar and the global economic order [11].