美银Hartnett：抄底美债是2025年“最大逆向交易”

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields above 5% presents a compelling buying opportunity for investors, despite the current market sentiment being largely unfavorable towards this trade [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market Insights - U.S. 10-year Treasury rolling returns have fallen to negative values, comparable to the market conditions seen in 2009 for U.S. equities and 2018 for commodities [1][4]. - The yield spread between 30-year U.S. Treasuries and Microsoft bonds has narrowed to a historical low of just 20 basis points, indicating that the market perceives Microsoft as having lower credit risk than the U.S. government [3]. - Hartnett suggests that a technical rebound in long-term bonds could provide an excellent opportunity for contrarian investors, especially with yields exceeding 5% [3][21]. Group 2: Economic and Fiscal Context - The U.S. federal budget deficit has averaged 9% of GDP over the past five years, with Moody's projecting this level to persist until 2034 [11][15]. - Current annual net interest payments have reached $1 trillion, with projections indicating that the debt ceiling may need to be raised to $40 trillion by 2025 [13][20]. - Inflation pressures have accumulated to a 25% increase over the past five years, significantly impacting the purchasing power of consumers [11][19]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Market Sentiment - The prevailing investment strategy on Wall Street is "Anything But Bonds" (ABB), reflecting a broad consensus against bond investments in the current market [8]. - Hartnett emphasizes the importance of a "magic number" for the 5-year Treasury yield at 3.25%, as exceeding this level could accelerate annual interest payments, while staying below it may help maintain fiscal stability [20][21]. - Despite the negative returns of 30-year Treasuries year-to-date, Hartnett advocates for a contrarian approach, suggesting that the current market conditions may be setting the stage for a significant reversal [20][21].