MINISO GROUP(9896.HK)：1Q25 MISSED ON ELEVATED STORE OPENING EXPENSES

Core Viewpoint - Miniso's 1Q25 revenue increased by 18.9% YoY to RMB4,427 million, but adjusted net profit (NP) declined by 4.8% YoY to RMB587 million, missing market expectations significantly. This decline is attributed to higher operating expenses related to new self-operated stores in the US, impacting the margin structure. Management remains optimistic about the full-year outlook, particularly for 4Q25, but investor concerns regarding earnings may take time to alleviate. The company is expected to present buying opportunities following the post-1Q25 earnings softness [1][2][5]. Revenue and Profit Performance - 1Q25 revenue growth of 18.9% YoY was in line with expectations, but adjusted NP fell by 4.8% YoY to RMB587 million, marking the lowest level since 3Q23. This decline contrasts sharply with the 20% YoY growth in NP recorded in 4Q24. The significant drop in adjusted NP is primarily due to a 47% YoY increase in selling and distribution expenses, which reached RMB1,021 million [2][3]. Operating Expenses and Store Strategy - The increase in operating expenses is mainly due to frontloaded costs associated with new self-operated stores in the US, which have higher operating expenses compared to franchised stores. Although the impact of these self-operated stores may diminish over time, it requires proof of effectiveness [3][4]. Management Outlook and Same-Store Sales Growth - Management anticipates that the new US stores will begin contributing to operating profits during the peak season in 4Q25. There has been sequential improvement in same-store sales growth (SSSG) in overseas markets, particularly in the US and Mexico, attributed to a refined strategy focusing on SSSG [4][5]. Future Expectations and Strategy Adjustments - Despite the 1Q25 miss, management's full-year target for 2025 remains unchanged, emphasizing a commitment to improving SSSG rather than aggressive store expansion. After a weak SSSG performance in 2024, there has been a quarter-over-quarter improvement in China, with expectations for further SSSG enhancement in 2Q25 [5][6]. Store Opening Plans - While the company still aims for a net store opening of 200-300 in 2025, management has indicated that this target is negotiable. The strategy of opening larger stores, particularly the IP-focused Miniso Land, is expected to support long-term SSSG growth [6]. Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast remains unchanged, with expectations that Miniso's earnings will align with original forecasts if self-operated stores overseas ramp up sufficiently in the second half of 2025. The target price is set at US$26.5 and HK$51.60, reflecting a P/E ratio of 20x/15x for 2025E/26E [7].