dbg盾博:日元应该会继续受到加息前景的支撑

Core Viewpoint - The future trajectory of the Japanese yen is expected to remain supported due to recent inflation data and the divergence in monetary policy among major global central banks [1][3]. Group 1: Japanese Inflation Data - Recent inflation data from Japan is a key variable influencing the yen's performance, suggesting a potential for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates later this year [3]. - Despite a long history of deflation in Japan, the market has been cautious about the Bank of Japan's rate hike, with low expectations for an increase this year [3]. Group 2: Global Monetary Policy Divergence - Most central banks in the G10 are moving towards lowering interest rates, with the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank continuing to cut rates to stimulate economic growth [3]. - In contrast, the Bank of Japan retains the possibility of raising rates, making its policy outlook unique amid a generally accommodative global monetary environment [3]. Group 3: Investor Behavior and Currency Dynamics - Investors seeking stable returns and asset preservation are likely to favor currencies with appreciation potential, such as the yen, due to its potential rate hike [3]. - As the market increasingly anticipates further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, the attractiveness of the dollar is diminishing, leading to a shift in investor preference towards the yen [4]. - The growing trend of selling dollars to buy yen is exerting downward pressure on the USD/JPY exchange rate [4].