AIB经济展望称贸易关税升级可能导致爱尔兰今年和明年经济增长放缓

Core Viewpoint - The report from AIB indicates that while Ireland's economy shows resilience against short-term trade and foreign direct investment shocks, permanent tariffs or changes in U.S. tax laws could significantly reduce Ireland's attractiveness for foreign direct investment, leading to greater long-term challenges [1] Economic Growth Projections - Domestic demand in Ireland is expected to grow by 2.3% this year, 2% in 2026, and 2.6% in 2027 [1] - The labor market is projected to continue growing, but employment growth is expected to slow down, with rates of 2.7% in 2024, 2% in 2025, 1.5% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027 [1] Consumer Behavior and Investment - Households in Ireland are anticipated to reduce spending, and some business sectors may delay planned investments, particularly in export-oriented industries [1] - Recent strong consumer spending, along with low overall debt levels in public and private sector balance sheets and high savings rates, are noted as mitigating factors [1] Risks from U.S. Tariffs and Tax Policies - The main downside risks to the Irish economy stem from U.S. tariffs and future U.S. tax policies [1] - Certain domestic export sectors, such as agriculture, are affected by U.S. tariffs, but the primary risks are concentrated in sectors dominated by multinational corporations [1] - Negative spillover effects from the multinational sector could harm domestic output and employment [1] Tax Base Concerns - A key medium-term risk for the Irish economy is the concentration of the tax base in corporate taxes and income taxes from the multinational sector [1]